Note that real-time risk assessments prior to August 14th used a fourteen day window. We define circulating cases (people who are currently infectious) as cases reported in the past ten days. This is not the same as the risk of any person being exposed or infected with COVID-19 at the event Our risk calculations tell you only how likely it is that at least one person at any event of a given size is infectious. The COVID-19 Risk Assessment Planning tool can be used to explore the risk that at least one person at an event of a certain size is currently infected with COVID-19, given a certain number of circulating infections in the specified region. See our data sourcesĪs many parts of the United States begin to lift shelter-in-place, it’s crucial for us to be able to estimate the risks involved with resuming non-essential activities, particularly those involving large crowds. Choose an event size and ascertainment bias below. We are evaluating the inclusion of lower ascertainment biases based on increased testing. In places with less testing availability, that bias may be higher. Based on seroprevalence data and increases in testing, by default we assume there are five times more cases than are being reported (5:1 ascertainment bias). The risk level is the estimated chance (0-100%) that at least 1 COVID-19 positive individual will be present at an event in a NUTS-3 level area (County, Local Authority, Council, District), given the size of the event.
For unvaccinated individuals, preventative steps before vaccination can reduce the risk of breakthrough disease, including potentially severe cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities. For vaccinated individuals, preventative steps can reduce the risk of breakthrough infections that spread to vulnerable individuals.
You can reduce the risk that one case becomes many by wearing a mask, distancing, and gathering outdoors in smaller groups. This map shows the risk level of attending events of different sizes at within-country resolution.
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